2017 July - Always be Scouting for "Blue Ocean" Unicorn Shape Shifters and unicorn asset classes moonshot markets
2017 July -
Behave more frequently like an Aikido Scout Blue Ocean brand new innovative warrior general. And less like your usual strategic less, tactical, jumpy, acute FOMO Aikido warrior self, which is ready to shoot from the hip when a sudden 2 day price move pops up unexpectedly over the last 48 hours up, one that irrationally excites or terrifies you. Unfortunately yes, your Aikido FOMO warrior within, has often tended to tactically react more to a "System 1" gut feeling, or hunch, or shame and new short term rigid belief that has arose first. On the other hand, when numerous big facts over 3 months proves big time that there is now a change to today's landscape and consensus, like a Great Scout warrior general proudly alter, mindfully and intriguingly, all the previous "non performing" and pernicious dysfunctional harmful beliefs, bets and relationships. And move big.
Always be Blue Ocean Shift Scouting relationships, markets, currencies and industries for evidence of impending horrible bad bets taken or.... totally unexpected positive contrary slingshot phenomenal potential cigar butt opportunities bets.
How?? Scout, DiSS, OODA, PCDA and constantly test out your checkvist SAP PCs "to dos" and ....your most successful Aikido betting still "to dos".
But, when wrong or misinformed by them, act with radical, humble transparency, implementing the next best latest probable 80/20 best improvement and simplified act that could help even more in the near future while trying to Think Thrice each day before acting.
Also Say these Aphorisms at the start of the day, midday and at the end
"You are just playing the Lottery. Aikido betting on markets and enduring another 20% paper loss on FF savings is just another easy tax on you, and the stupid."
How?? Scout, DiSS, OODA, PCDA and constantly test out your checkvist SAP PCs "to dos" and ....your most successful Aikido betting still "to dos".
But, when wrong or misinformed by them, act with radical, humble transparency, implementing the next best latest probable 80/20 best improvement and simplified act that could help even more in the near future while trying to Think Thrice each day before acting.
Also Say these Aphorisms at the start of the day, midday and at the end
"This year, you will often be wrong when you think you were so right? And may end up often right when you thought you were really wrong? So just feel the fear and do it anyway scout-ingly.
"What else can we do to improve?"
"What else can we do to improve?"
"What 2 missed things would change my mind to believe I am really wrong about the direction of my current bets? What 2 things would indicate in fact that a sling shot is about to go the other way in contra?"
For 5 minutes, fight your first impulsive desire to ever act without 2 numeric PostIt pieces of swarm evidence indicating the contrary. And to help you fight the trigger, visualize and focus on an alternative inner Stephen King vomit image if you were to give in to it without this evidence. Visualise the vomitting to repeatedly to counteract and dampen that "unconscious over biased joy, anger, fear ,"must act on" belief that is jumping up laughing and screaming at you to poorly and rashly behave irrationally and impulsively so as to seek the next dopamine hit now. e.g. resist any sudden impulse for action in relation to betrayal, jealous accusation, sugar, alcohol, fat, hold more crypto shitcoins, increase shorting of FTSE, invest in more cheating, flirting or more narcissistic undermining.
Yearn instead summon positive images that encourage your to make more important thoughtful 80/20 best possible decisions and actions that support only top quality small actions rather than big movie impulsive ego actions.
Actually instead of betting a large stash of the FF this week, savour or plan another beautiful top 80/20 echelon moment like a concert, a planned mindful yoga course, a dance weekend holiday, a nature spot stroll, a sea swim or try a new diet, a new exercise experiment, a new learning breakthrough skill, or seek a new adventure above the clouds, on the open seas or up the highest hills.
Actually instead of betting a large stash of the FF this week, savour or plan another beautiful top 80/20 echelon moment like a concert, a planned mindful yoga course, a dance weekend holiday, a nature spot stroll, a sea swim or try a new diet, a new exercise experiment, a new learning breakthrough skill, or seek a new adventure above the clouds, on the open seas or up the highest hills.
Like a good Scout would fight it, or Daniel Kanehman, fight your unconscious need for easy "cognitive fluency" pernicious short cuts that could result again in reduced FF, poor first impressions, impulsive triggers and false optimal current directional bets !
i.e.
To help you can get yourself and other people to think slowly through the question, by presenting it less clearly. To think carefully and to prevent them from making silly mistakes, make them work to process the question by making the font hard to read, the cadence awkward, and the wording unfamiliar.
“Fluent things are familiar, but also boring and comfortable, lack of fluency is intriguing and novel. Sometimes you like comfort food, like when you’re sick. And usually you only want to try something new when you’re more comfortable.”
And to boost your self-confidence when down with your work or partner, write a dauntingly long list of all the reasons why you’re a failure in what you are an supposed expert. Thinking of 12 ways to fail had the same good effect as thinking of three ways to succeed.
Feeling good about yourself is proportional to having a hard time making yourself feel bad about yourself.
Feeling good about your FF bet is proportional to spending a decent hard time going about feeling bad about it.
So fight acting on your gut feeling opinion just for the next 2 minutes! Make it hard. That's enough for now. Fight like a stubborn warrior scout your every desire to gamble another big piece of your Freedom Fund with just another sickening risky mediocre 50/50 bet that is probably based today on only one piece of "available" FOMO chart/price evidence, or based on a bit of positive or negative online click bait Cryptocurrency news or on a bit of an unsubstantiated FOMO gut feeling.
i.e.
To help you can get yourself and other people to think slowly through the question, by presenting it less clearly. To think carefully and to prevent them from making silly mistakes, make them work to process the question by making the font hard to read, the cadence awkward, and the wording unfamiliar.
“Fluent things are familiar, but also boring and comfortable, lack of fluency is intriguing and novel. Sometimes you like comfort food, like when you’re sick. And usually you only want to try something new when you’re more comfortable.”
And to boost your self-confidence when down with your work or partner, write a dauntingly long list of all the reasons why you’re a failure in what you are an supposed expert. Thinking of 12 ways to fail had the same good effect as thinking of three ways to succeed.
Feeling good about yourself is proportional to having a hard time making yourself feel bad about yourself.
Feeling good about your FF bet is proportional to spending a decent hard time going about feeling bad about it.
Be an intrigued and grounded Scout warrior Gary.
Go to Google to search briefly for 2 good pieces of contrarian swarm evidence that is telling you it's best not to scratch your new acute poorly backed up "must be a cigar butt" belief/hunch and impulse that is wrong or at best a mediocre Mediocrestan blah entry point bet, belief or exit impulse.
On a post-it note, Google Keep, or in your Decision analysis app, write the 2 supposed contrarian evidential narratives down. List the 2 arguments, reasons, international news that might advise "against" acting on your impulse just now.
Go to Google to search briefly for 2 good pieces of contrarian swarm evidence that is telling you it's best not to scratch your new acute poorly backed up "must be a cigar butt" belief/hunch and impulse that is wrong or at best a mediocre Mediocrestan blah entry point bet, belief or exit impulse.
On a post-it note, Google Keep, or in your Decision analysis app, write the 2 supposed contrarian evidential narratives down. List the 2 arguments, reasons, international news that might advise "against" acting on your impulse just now.
Be a Great Aikido Scout warrior leader and after pausing for a long time, acknowledge today's panoramic situations even better by being even more patient, curious, open, meditative, grounded, proud to change your newest non performing or code RED situations, beliefs and desires. Feel creative, positive, and confidently intrigued when 3 or more big facts say you are wrong again this month and maybe long term.
Prediction rules.
Prepare:
Write down on a post It to stick on the door, 2 embarrassing current good potential contrarian outside views and swarm actions, that are probably facts.
Write down on a post It to stick on the door, 2 embarrassing current good potential contrarian outside views and swarm actions, that are probably facts.
Recognize:
For each view in the Prepare section above, spot and own up to your latest, oldest and newest mistakes and pernicious illusory superiority biases influencing the view or action.
For each view in the Prepare section above, spot and own up to your latest, oldest and newest mistakes and pernicious illusory superiority biases influencing the view or action.
Apply:
Even still, use your various top CBT, exercises, currencies ETFs, aikido tech analysis, Kelly fractions, Dalio portfolio spreads and positive true swarm tools to continue to hedge your risky but potentially very profitable scout actions
Even still, use your various top CBT, exercises, currencies ETFs, aikido tech analysis, Kelly fractions, Dalio portfolio spreads and positive true swarm tools to continue to hedge your risky but potentially very profitable scout actions
Three major areas of mistakes:
- Overconfidence or Over Pessimism - I thought I was better driver than most (too fast, accident) or I am probably going to be an idiot again (2 tentatively slow)
- Irrational Impatience - FOMO FOBABI I just blindly follow the initial short term bees that were confirming my latest bias or NAT fear
- Indiscipline -Forgetting Thrice Thinking, Nidra Yoga with gold honey dissent seeking when under short term pressures to act on impulse.
- Need to check how successful others have been in this same position and how successful taking the opposition position (with win/loss record)
- Most people favor their gut inside view over the general outside view (outside view never sees this problem or opportunity as unique and so has a better perspective).
- Don't Fall to the illusion of optimism Example: Trying to beat the real odds of M&A history
- Your dug up testimonials or stories are often falsely "more influential" than latest true swarm slingshot move data
- Planning fallacy: Don't underestimate the true pace and paper cost of true market slingshots and complicated projects when they do pivot direction long term or Change Scope.
- THEREFORE SCOUT A BETTER DECISION AND NOT...
- Looking at other similar relationships, world markets and currencies for more objective, contrarian outside-view analysis
- Select a really good reference class or two to compare what really might happen to your prediction or usually happens
- Assessing and write out in fear settings the true range of possible negative outcomes if you act hastily this month or not at all
- Making your Scout prediction carefully. Honestly seek dissent constantly and if still 70% sure, state from the start, what, during this infinite game of life of better opportunities, would seriously and intriguingly change your mind if you found your are in danger of risking serious amounts of FF paper money, or emotions of the heart.
- If winning, assess weekly the true reliability of your long term prediction and be proud to fine tune it or forget it based on latest indisputrable evidence and probabilities.
Ch. 2: Not Been open to more Options and Context
- Your Telephone Number unrelatedly anchors you and Affects Your Decisions
- So Beware of your Tunnel vision brought on by stress, fear and impulse.
- The Presentation of the problem that may contain biases can even affect how we solve it.
- So Always be open and suspicious of the predictable
- Watch out for Representativeness bias and Availability bias
- Like Groupman thinking (author of How Doctors Think):
- Remember, ye Old Historic Pattern Recognition skills are less relevant in modern pacey alogorithmic digital world
- Identify your top 4 missed Confirmation biases (google the persuasiveness of consistency) to avoid missing glaring inconsistencies
- Example: famous video of counting white shirts and missing something glaring like a gorilla or lies or lover or world GDP or credit turn
- Bad agent incentives encourages vendors to offer more risk, and an incomplete picture to you and client
- THEREFORE SCOUT BEST DECISION AND...
- Seek and scout 3 factual dissents weekly in Google and best friends that prove wrong your loving predicted long term outcomes in each project.
- Keep track of bad decisions, biases, and predictions to use them to avoid "hindsight blindness biases" that lead to unnecessay recurring mistakes; write them down in your project decision and prediction making journal and
- Avoid decisions and predictions in emotional situations that acutely scream at you to act Fast this month.
- Understand and question compassionately other people's and government incentives and alterior motives first.
Ch. 3: Not been aware of The Expert Squeeze bets by the better informed crowd
- Why does Netflix Knows More Than Blockbuster Clerks About Your Favorite Films? The Wisdom of Crowds
- Collective error is, individual error, minus collective diversity.
- So the 3 requirements for successful crowdsourced estimates/predictions: diversity, aggregation, incentives
- Don't Inappropriately rely only on intuition or an agent inspired intuition
- Match the problem with an even more appropriate solution
- THEREFORE SCOUT BEST DECISION BY...
- Seeking more diversity identifying major incentives and using best technology repeatedly when possible
Ch. 4: Not been aware of the Situational Background Default Influencing Effect on you
- People often conform to group judgments.
- Groups affect perception parts of brain, not so much the decision making part Groups can affect how you see, not think!
- Fundamental attribution error
- Experiment: ambient music statistically affects French or German wine purchase preferences.
- Opt out organ donations: most people just go with defaults.
- Milgrams perception studies on roles
- Zimbardo prison perception study on roles
- Inertia in old business practices due to group perception
- THEREFORE SCOUT BEST DECISION AND...
- To stop group perception and default beliefs errors, follow your checklists (e.g., for IV line insertions in hospitals).
- Be aware of more situations.
- Consider the situation, culture and company before judging the group perceived attribute or individual behaviour.
- Watch out for the institutional imperative .
- Avoid your group inertia.
Ch. 5: More is Different
- (How Bees Find Hives Without Real Estate Agents)
- Swarm intelligence, no leader
- Aggregation of noisy individuals
- Complex adaptive systems Interactions create structure.
- Individuals inept; whole smart
- Market irrationality does not follow from individual irrationality.
- Changes in one component can affect whole (problems at Yellowstone Park)
- THEREFORE SCOUT BEST DECISION AND...
- List any tightly coupled systems.
- Do exploratory simulations tests to build and partake in possible new complex worlds.
Ch. 6: Spot Evidence of new Circumstance (Outsourcing the Dreamliner)
- Birth order affects personality, but context changes this.
- Correlation and coincidence is not always vice versa causality: Superbowl stock market indicator
- For causality, x must always come before y, x must have a functional relationship with y, and there must be no z that could also cause also both x and y.
- Mistake: Showing inflexibility in face of new causal or non causal evidence (Norse failure to adapt in Greenland)
- Ch. 7: Grand Ah-Whooms
- (Making the Millennium Bridge Wobble)
- Arbitrage and negative feedback resist Ah whooms, black swans, change and tend to stabilize systems.
- Positive feedback creates trends.
- Small incremental change can end in a big sudden phase transition (liquid temperature to ice, critical mass of new fad): called ah-whoom moments
- Synchronized crowd behavior swayed Millenium Bridge
- Nassim Taleb/Black Swans: extreme outliers in power law distributions
- Problem of induction
- Falsification over time better indicator of causal than verification and positive confirmation
- Mandelbrot: normal distribution wrong chart for asset prices
- LTCM: variable changing correlations can wreak havoc
- Our prediction ability is very poor; big role for luck
- In social networking or online games, luck of initial draw/initial picks/users critical to determining future path
- SCOUT BEST DECISION AND...
- Understand distribution, model, and prepare for gray swans.
- Prepare for ah-whoom moments too.
- Beware of individual forecasters bees
- Mitigate downside, capture upside
- Kelly formula: never bet too much when big losses are possible and bigger gains not likely
Ch. 8: Sorting Luck from Skill
- (Why Investors Buy High and Sell Low)
- Dalton: research on reversion to mean
- Children heights: revert to mean, stable distribution
- Your Feedback should review only your focu, skill and process, not your old bet results, because these also revert to mean.
- Halo effect: mistakenly only focus on adopting only winners' strategies, not previous losers that could revert to mean
- SCOUT BEST DECISION AND...
- Bet on small sample size over long 3m period to see if big movie moves conclusion is really worthwhile.
Conclusion
- When stakes risked are high, before you put out, think Thrice oh Great Scout
- Raise your awareness of any new paradigm. Or false paradigm revealed.
- Remember past mistakes and solutions when you find it is actually no new paradigm.
- Put yourself in the others' side shoes and superior beliefs first, find a different outside view reference class. Or theirs.
- Keep a decision-making journal to improve your seeking dissent before risking more FF.
- Only follow your checklists for big movie prioritising and exit strategies if no new paradigm.
- Conduct pre postmortems checklist todos to spot current paradigm corrupted.
- Know what you can never know ....like black swans and new swarms.
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