Skip to main content

1999 Mar - My first 100k online bet AMZN ever - at 52. Now 1844. Be loyal to the management and ready to remarry your divorced bride if you both realign

Yes in Feb 1999 I bought 1920 AMZN at 52 AND the next days sold at 64. Topped at 110 in April l999. Fell 65% to 44 in August 1999.  Rose 110% to 107 in Feb 2000. I thought I was a genius in Feb 1999 and would make money easily this way. I did not realise I could have picked anything as the tech sector was in the mid cycle of the most amazing two year bubble bubble which started 1 year earlier and ended 1 year later in March 2000 when it fell 30% in one month and came crashing down 100% to 1998 levels again. It crashed to 7 dollars per share by Nov 2001. Within 18 months of March 2000 there was four 10-30% false upwards corrections. This would have been Great for the person whose great strategy was to surf it down for 2 years from the top, shorting another 30% of FF with every 25%  correction back up.

Long in bonds prices would have been a less emotional ride and a great strategy too. 
They doubled in price in 2 years.

Amazon AMZN temporarily topped in early 1999 after 1 month after I bought in Feb 1999 and crashed from April until August.

But rose the following six months 50% until bubble burst in March 2000 when it fell from 110 to 15 in three years.

Ironically if I had stayed in for one year from March 1999 to March 2000, instead of taking my gain of 25% at 64, I would have lost 10% as it would have been down at 58.

If I stayed in for 18 months from March 1999 to Sep 2000 at a price of 15, I would have lost 80% and much more if I had been  leveraged.

I conclude that it easier to make a quick 10% in a bubble, than HODL ride a bubble to infinity. I conclude that you would probably get caught in a sudden crash down eventually.

WARNING: Amazon did not return to break even at 64 until 8 years later in 2008 and fell a further 50% from there to 42 in Nov 2008. Then my shy online delivery "divorced bride",  started to rise and reached 70 by March 2009. March 2009 was pivotal. 

For shorting it or going long. Long would have been better. It has not looked back since then and in 2016, almost 8 years later with only 2014 turning out to be a little correction it now stands at 702. That is a 1000% gain in 8 years.

So is it Time to short it in 2016 at $700 for another two years to benefit from  -85% short term gain if there is a 2 year crash?

2018 June it was 2000. In retrospect, Woulda have been terrible to short it at $700 in 2016 if I did do a reverse long bet as punishment for bad short.  Even now Nov 2018 it is at $1600. 

 2019 Peaked at 2020 on 15th July. Nearly triple that of 2016 price. Divorced wife. Good time to short for 6 months. And now in Sep 2019 at $1845. And now in Jan 2020 at $1905. 

 Funfact: If I HODL for 20 years or got back in at same price and HODL for 11 years. My 100k bet would be worth 40 million now. 400x. So after paying taxes I would have 25 million to retire on.

 One good 100k bet at 30k addittion per 10-15 dip could still make me equally good by age 73.




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2005 June - What Tech stocks look good? SYMC INSP IACI. Prioritising use 50d 200d attributes rather than outer group circumstances

Which top stock is heading for their 4th dip in 4 months? I feel these are ready for reverse throws up, SYMC, INSP and IACI. They are touching their 50 day or 200 day moving averages. I will invest 150% of my portfolio for four weeks, the second week in May and then short the same stock 100% or a weak stock that is hitting its 50d or 200d moving average.
Post a Comment
Read more

2005 June: La Manga: Exit decisions postponed and position increased. Amazon tanking did not mean I had to stay away forever

Here I am in La Manga Spain in June 2005. I bought $16000 of AMZN at 38 in February 2005 and sold them now in June 2005 at 35 at 10% loss which seems like a good move at the time but over next six months they went up 20%. And two years later had gone up 100%.  And 13 years later had gone up 5000% meaning my investment would have been become 840,000 or  63,000 a year profit Jesus now with all this cash, I don´t know whether to do nothing tomorrow on the stock market or go all in. I want to bet on NTES and CTSH but I am scared after seeing Amazon tank 20% last week after weak results. What if that happens to NTES or CTSH if I bet 40,000. I will be down at least eight thousand dollars or sixteen thousand if I use leverage. If I don´t bet, I will probably miss my last opportunity for a a big profit this quarter. Should I wait for another three months or gamble. If I am wrong I will wait a month and then get out like I should have done with EXM which shot through the roof when...
Post a Comment
Read more

2005 May - 10% cover exit decision costs me to miss 12000 profit in one day. Was time to stick long aikido move

I am afraid I am going to be down thousands by the end of today. But still, I have bought 1500 shares in NTES a Chinese net stock. But if Sina's results from yesterday were bad then I am at risk of losing loads. It is the risk I have chosen to take today because I know the direction of the indices for the next two years and I have bought on a six week correction. Fingers crossed you crazy gambling bastard. This is NTES. Sina nose dives on news that their revenue will be cut in the future because of the Chinese government banning all text messages to mobile phones. But they had record forth quarter profit. Despite this they loss thirty per cent in the morning to recover being down only fifteen per cent at the end of the day. My shares in NITE dived too but recovered to where I bought them at. Tomorrow I will sell them if they do not get off to a hot start. I sold my NITE. Just in time because by the end of the day they were down five per cent.  I am gutted my favorite internati...
Post a Comment
Read more